Forecasts of the Dutch Justice Chains

Until 2003 forecasts were made with the Jukebox model, which was developed in cooperation with the Social and Cultural Planning Office. This model only forecasted the demand for sanction capacity, such as community services and prisons. In 2004 the first version of the Forecasting Model Justice Chains was completed. This model is an elaborate extension of the Jukebox model and also includes the capacity demand of the Police, Public Prosecutor, Courts, legal aid, Probation Services, etc. In 2005 another extension was added covering civil and administrative law and legal aid in this area.

The forecasts are updated every year. This means that the data is updated and the model coefficients are re-estimated. The forecasts are policy neutral, which means that new or recently implemented policies are not included in the WODC forecasts. Policy makers make an estimate of the effects of new policies or legislation. These effects are then added on to the WODC forecasts. Together these estimates form the policy rich forecasts, which serve as an underpinning of the budget of the Ministry of Security and Justice.

The forecasts are yearly published in Dutch with an English summary. More information about the model and the policy neutral forecasts can be obtained from Ben Tims or Debora Moolenaar (links to Dutch site).

Latest report: Forecasting the demand on the Dutch justice system until 2028