New methods for researching reconviction during a criminal sentence
A test case examining reconvictions during forensic psychiatric care (full text only available in Dutch)
- Hill, J.M., Drieschner, K.H., Weijters, G.M.
- Place of publication:
- the Hague
- Year of publication:
- Cahiers 2020-09
Since the 1980s, the WODC has regularly published on the reconviction rates for ex-tbs patients (tbs: disposal to be treated in a forensic hospital on behalf of the state). Research into reconvictions during a criminal justice intervention is not possible using the analysis method with which the WODC traditionally measures reconvictions following completion of an intervention. The aim of this feasibility study is, therefore, to develop a method with which reconvictions during a criminal justice intervention can be measured.
The first step in this process involved identifying eligible methods for measuring reconvictions. We consider time-to-event analysis methods, such as survival analysis, competing risks analysis, and multistate analysis. The conclusion is that multistate analysis (MSA) is the most suitable method, with limitations. In cases where it cannot be applied a standardised counting method (SC) can be used.Using a combination of SC and MSA, therefore, appears a suitable approach to measuring reconvictions during criminal justice interventions. In this feasibility study, these two methods are tested out on the tbs offender group.
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